Wednesday, August 13, 2003

Below is an analysis of some of John Kerry's Economic Goals with brief, non-trashing comments on related postions offered by Dean and Gephardt. It is meant to be a relatively dispassionate dissection of the substance of different approaches to the issue of the economy, especially Kerry's. If I were to add any qualifications at this point I would just add that while it may become possible to roll back part of the Bush tax cuts for those at the very top of the income scale if the Democrats retake both houses of Congress, at least narrowly, it's not something we should count on, and oppostion to any kind of tax cuts, even ones that help the middle class or low income people seems unwise politically and economically.

I want to outline some of the key points of John Kerry’s goals and plans for our economy: on energy, health care, and the environment. I think that they show that he will be the best candidate for the Democratic Party to nominate in 2004, and that he will make the best President if elected.
What impresses me the most about his goals for our economy is the comprehensiveness of his overall plan. He shows a thorough grasp of how our American economy has worked in the past and what is needed now, and what the political realities are that any Democratic President is likely to face if elected.

John Kerry’s goals put the emphasis on stimulating the economy right up front, and helping different areas of our economy that are hurting. He says that he will make investments in homeland security, infrastructure, and transportation. This would include things like schools, mass transit, and light rail where it makes sense. He says that improvements in infrastructure are long overdue. This is how you create jobs, move products, and how you make cities work.
This is very important.

Bush’s economic policies have been terrible for many reasons. His big tax cuts, with most of the benefits enjoyed by the rich, have blown a huge hole in the federal budget and created huge deficits, both actual and projected. But even more important than that for the present and the immediate future is that his tax cuts have provided no real stimulus to the economy overall that will help the overwhelming majority of Americans.
Senator Kerry has a plan for promoting job creation through the promotion of alternative energy and energy conservation. He would also help small businesses become an engine for job creation and economic growth through tax credits and deferred tax liability when these incentives are used to invest and expand.

These are just some of the exciting feature of a comprehensive plan. These different features will also help with other problems than economic ones. His plan to promote alternative energy will help turn the U.S. away from policies that contribute to global warming, a grave threat to our environment. His health care plan will help consumers and businesses reduce health care costs and help make health care more affordable and available to all Americans. More details on his economic goals can be found at his web site at http://www.johnkerry.com.

I would also like to briefly touch upon some of the economic principles put forth by some of the other candidates, including Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt. I want to make it clear that in making these comparisons I am not trashing them. However, if we cannot make honest and open comparisons of the different ways that the candidates approach the issues, it seems to me that the best candidate for the Democratic Party’s nomination may not be the candidate who gets the nomination. They are all, however, fine people of excellent character and ability.

Two of the key principles that Howard Dean has advanced are budget balance and rolling back all of the Bush tax cuts. A rigid emphasis on the first of these seems to me to be economically as well as politically unwise. It also seems to me to call into question exactly what Dean meant when he claimed to be representing the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party”. Budget balance has been a key idea promoted by many of our party’s centrists, including many of the members of the D.L.C. To be sure, budget balance does have a lot of importance, and I did not wish to suggest earlier that John Kerry does not think so also. However, how you go about creating the conditions for the gradual restoration of budget balance could be critically important. If you go about it too rigidly you could wind up hurting the interests of the overwhelming majority of the people that you are trying to help. And it is surprising to find, in examining this one big detail of one of Howard Dean’s positions, that there is this gap between what his rhetoric has been, and what his actual positions are actually like. If you claim to be representing the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party” presumably there are other Democrats who are something less than real Democrats. On this issue, and it is an important one, he seems to be basically in the camp of the heavily criticized centrists of the party.

On the other issue, rolling back all of the Bush tax cuts, it seems to me there is a different kind of problem. Rolling back all of the tax cuts isn’t necessarily going to be possible even under the best possible circumstances. Even if the Democrats retake the Presidency, and both houses of Congress by large margins, rolling back some of the tax cuts for those who were not at the very top of the income scale may be something that many Democrats will be very reluctant to do. And the situation may turn out not to be even that good. If they retake the Presidency and both houses of Congress only narrowly, rolling back any of the Bush tax cuts in the immediate future after the election may not be possible. So it is not something you should necessarily count on.
Dick Gephardt says that his health care plan would stimulate the economy. This may be true, if it could get passed. Under the best of possible circumstances, this is likely to take some time. And those best possible circumstances may be out-of-reach in the first years of the new President’s term.
Overall, I believe that John Kerry offers the best combination of realism and idealism and the best capacity for leadership of the American people of all the nine candidates running for the Democratic Party’s nomination. I strongly urge the readers of this list to seriously consider him as the candidate they will support and vote for.

Richard Garner
Chula Vista, California


John Kerry.com

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