More Confusion on Exit Polls
It's difficult to tell what to believe about the exit polls lately, as is seen in this item from Bloggermann:
Two conflicting scholarly studies on the variance between the national exit polling and the presidential election results, are flying across the Internet, eating up your e-mail storage capacity.
One, from the University of Pennsylvania, reminds us that exit polls are used as 'audits' on the elections in places like Germany and Mexico, and suggests the actual statistical odds that the exit polling was that wrong in the battleground states were 250,000,000 to one.
The other, from a voting project managed by CalTech and MIT, says that while the incorrectness of national exit polling can't be explained by the proverbial 'margin of error,' on a state-by-state basis, it actually was within that margin.
posted by Ron Chusid at 3:53 PM
10 Comments:
Possibly an indication of what might still happen in Ohio. It might also be an indication of the norm for future elections now that the Republicans have made suppressing the vote part of their electoral stragegy.
Here's some of the most up to date information on the Ohio situation. The article isn't necessarily favorable to questions on the election, but is worth looking at for the information it does contain:
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041113/NEWS01/411130389
NO! NO! NO! No Condie!
Presidential Race Still Undecided in New Mexico
Fri Nov 12, 7:36 PM ET
SANTA FE, N.M. (Reuters) - Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry has conceded, President Bush has laid out his plans for a second term and New Mexico still does not know who won the election in the sparsely populated state.
New Mexico is the only state that does not have a clear-cut winner in the presidential vote, and state officials were red-faced over the slow count. The state had vowed to speed up counting ballots after it took about a month to tally the vote in the 2000 presidential race, where Democrat Al Gore beat Bush by 366 votes.
Bush has about 373,000 votes to 365,000 for Kerry with most of the ballots counted, and several media outlets have projected Bush winning New Mexico's five electoral votes.
On Friday, all of New Mexico's counties had to complete a count in their regions, but one rural county still had problems and did not meet the deadline. The secretary of state's office said Bush's lead over Kerry has narrowed to about 6,800 votes, according to initial tallies of the provisional ballots submitted to the office on Friday.
The main problems this time were the narrow margin between Bush and Kerry, troubles sorting through provisional ballots and not learning from the 2000 count, critics said.
It will still take more than 10 days to find out who took the last state up for grabs in the Nov. 2 election.
"I will not be declaring a winner until Nov. 23," said New Mexico Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron.
About 750,000 people voted in New Mexico, and Republicans said money that should have gone to getting the vote counted ended up in a marketing campaign aimed at getting out the vote in the state run by Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson.
"The counties were unprepared for the volume of voters because the money wasn't there," said New Mexico Republican Party Executive Director Greg Graves.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041113/pl_nm/election_newmexico_dc_4
Who runs the country when Cheney is incapacited? Surely they wouldn't let Dubya do anything. Maybe Lynn Cheney is now in charge.
Okay, I give... maybe Condi is better...
No. They're hiding Mary in the closet again.
We saw their true colors when Kerry mentioned her in an innocent manner, even complimenting them. Just acknowledging her existence is taken by them as something to be ashamed of.
If they don't try to hide it in the closet then they try to sweep it under the rug. Too many little secrets... soon they will run out of places to hide them.
Cheney's out of the hospital, and presumably back in charge.
Check out the picture of him with this article--he looks like he's about to tell someone to go Cheney themself.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6804928&src=rss/ElectionCoverage§ion=news
Awesome! Thanks Marcus. I will pass the word!
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