From the Wall Street Journal
The GOP's Blue-State Blues
Not everything came up roses for Republicans on Election Day.
Monday, November 8, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST
Not everything came up roses for Republicans on Election Day.
Monday, November 8, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST
Republicans have much to crow about after last week's election. They have solid control of the White House and both houses of Congress for the first time since before the Depression. But this is still a closely divided country, and while the GOP won the major league pennants, Democrats did well in the AAA league of politics, the state legislatures. Republicans have to pay attention not only to where they are gaining votes, but also to the states and demographic groups where they are losing them.
Last week, more than 80% of the roughly 7,300 partisan legislative seats in the country were up for grabs, as elections for state legislators took place in 44 states. Before the election, Republicans had a narrow 60-seat aggregate nationwide lead in seats, the smallest any party had held since statistics have been recorded. Now the margin is even smaller, but this time Democrats are on top. Pending recounts, they will have 3,658 legislative seats to 3,652 for Republicans. The GOP now controls both legislative chambers in 20 states. Democrats control both chambers in 19, and 10 are split, with Democrats holding one chamber and Republicans the other. (The unicameral Nebraska Legislature is nonpartisan.)
The legislative races once again showed how blue states and red states are inexorably moving towards being dominated by one party. Republicans continued their four-decade long rise in the South, winning the state House in Georgia for the first time since Reconstruction. They also won control of the Tennessee Senate and the Oklahoma House for the first time since the 1920s. Indiana, with many counties which retain a Southern flavor, saw its state House switch to the GOP. The only Democratic bright spot in the old Confederacy was in North Carolina, where a court-ordered redistricting plan favored Democrats and allowed them to retake control of the state House.
But outside the South, Democrats had good news, racking up gains in states John Kerry won. Republicans lost control of the Oregon Senate, the Washington Senate and the Vermont House. In Minnesota, they walloped the Republicans and narrowed a 28-seat GOP advantage in the state House down to just two seats. Democrats elected half the state representatives in Rochester, home of the Mayo Clinic, for the first time in history. One of the Rochester GOP veterans who lost was Bill Kuisle, the House assistant majority leader, who was defeated by Andy Welti, a 23-year-old substitute teacher running for his first elective office. The late Paul Wellstone, the former political organizer who became a liberal senator from Minnesota, would be pleased at the grass-roots success that left-wing activists had in his state this year.
Last week, more than 80% of the roughly 7,300 partisan legislative seats in the country were up for grabs, as elections for state legislators took place in 44 states. Before the election, Republicans had a narrow 60-seat aggregate nationwide lead in seats, the smallest any party had held since statistics have been recorded. Now the margin is even smaller, but this time Democrats are on top. Pending recounts, they will have 3,658 legislative seats to 3,652 for Republicans. The GOP now controls both legislative chambers in 20 states. Democrats control both chambers in 19, and 10 are split, with Democrats holding one chamber and Republicans the other. (The unicameral Nebraska Legislature is nonpartisan.)
The legislative races once again showed how blue states and red states are inexorably moving towards being dominated by one party. Republicans continued their four-decade long rise in the South, winning the state House in Georgia for the first time since Reconstruction. They also won control of the Tennessee Senate and the Oklahoma House for the first time since the 1920s. Indiana, with many counties which retain a Southern flavor, saw its state House switch to the GOP. The only Democratic bright spot in the old Confederacy was in North Carolina, where a court-ordered redistricting plan favored Democrats and allowed them to retake control of the state House.
But outside the South, Democrats had good news, racking up gains in states John Kerry won. Republicans lost control of the Oregon Senate, the Washington Senate and the Vermont House. In Minnesota, they walloped the Republicans and narrowed a 28-seat GOP advantage in the state House down to just two seats. Democrats elected half the state representatives in Rochester, home of the Mayo Clinic, for the first time in history. One of the Rochester GOP veterans who lost was Bill Kuisle, the House assistant majority leader, who was defeated by Andy Welti, a 23-year-old substitute teacher running for his first elective office. The late Paul Wellstone, the former political organizer who became a liberal senator from Minnesota, would be pleased at the grass-roots success that left-wing activists had in his state this year.
posted by Ron Chusid at 1:04 PM
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JOHN FUND ON THE TRAIL
The GOP's Blue-State Blues
Not everything came up roses for Republicans on Election Day.
Monday, November 8, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST
Republicans have much to crow about after last week's election. They have solid control of the White House and both houses of Congress for the first time since before the Depression. But this is still a closely divided country, and while the GOP won the major league pennants, Democrats did well in the AAA league of politics, the state legislatures. Republicans have to pay attention not only to where they are gaining votes, but also to the states and demographic groups where they are losing them.
Last week, more than 80% of the roughly 7,300 partisan legislative seats in the country were up for grabs, as elections for state legislators took place in 44 states. Before the election, Republicans had a narrow 60-seat aggregate nationwide lead in seats, the smallest any party had held since statistics have been recorded. Now the margin is even smaller, but this time Democrats are on top. Pending recounts, they will have 3,658 legislative seats to 3,652 for Republicans. The GOP now controls both legislative chambers in 20 states. Democrats control both chambers in 19, and 10 are split, with Democrats holding one chamber and Republicans the other. (The unicameral Nebraska Legislature is nonpartisan.)
The legislative races once again showed how blue states and red states are inexorably moving towards being dominated by one party. Republicans continued their four-decade long rise in the South, winning the state House in Georgia for the first time since Reconstruction. They also won control of the Tennessee Senate and the Oklahoma House for the first time since the 1920s. Indiana, with many counties which retain a Southern flavor, saw its state House switch to the GOP. The only Democratic bright spot in the old Confederacy was in North Carolina, where a court-ordered redistricting plan favored Democrats and allowed them to retake control of the state House.
But outside the South, Democrats had good news, racking up gains in states John Kerry won. Republicans lost control of the Oregon Senate, the Washington Senate and the Vermont House. In Minnesota, they walloped the Republicans and narrowed a 28-seat GOP advantage in the state House down to just two seats. Democrats elected half the state representatives in Rochester, home of the Mayo Clinic, for the first time in history. One of the Rochester GOP veterans who lost was Bill Kuisle, the House assistant majority leader, who was defeated by Andy Welti, a 23-year-old substitute teacher running for his first elective office. The late Paul Wellstone, the former political organizer who became a liberal senator from Minnesota, would be pleased at the grass-roots success that left-wing activists had in his state this year.
And although same-sex marriage lost at the ballot box in 11 states, in Massachusetts--the state that started the national controversy--Democrats and their gay allies blunted Gov. Mitt Romney's drive to elect more Republicans to the state Legislature. The Massachusetts Gay and Lesbian Political Caucus re-elected all of its endorsed incumbents and even won three of the five open seats that had been held by supporters of a constitutional amendment against same-sex marriage.
Mr. Romney wasn't the only GOP chief executive to be frustrated in his desire to have more state legislative allies. In Hawaii, that state's popular governor, Linda Lingle, saw the voters ignore her appeals for a more cooperative legislature as unions picked off several Republican incumbents. California's Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was similarly disappointed in California, where his party failed to gain a single seat in the Legislature despite his 65% approval ratings. Look for the governor to turn his attention to a ballot initiative that would end the state's Democratic gerrymander in favor of a plan that would have district lines drawn by a panel of retired judges.
In 1969, a young aide to Richard Nixon named Kevin Phillips wrote a prescient and original book called "The Emerging Republican Majority." Since then Mr. Phillips has made a quirky ideological journey to the left, but his basic thesis, that Republicans were about to build a new majority based on the South and Sun Belt while shedding voters in ancestral Republican states in the North, has been remarkably useful in analyzing the Republican gains of recent years, including this year's GOP triumphs.
But the GOP's dominance of the South, rural Midwest and Mountain states has come at a real price, one that was on clear display in this election. In 2000, George W. Bush won only one Northeastern state--tax-phobic New Hampshire--and that by a margin of only 1.3%. This year John Kerry won every single state north of Virginia and east of Ohio. Democrats have a major challenge in trying to find ways to communicate with Heartland voters, but Republicans shouldn't forget that their new dominance is tenuous and is unlikely to last if the party remains uncompetitive on both coasts.
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