Ohio to Count Provisional Ballots
Counting of the Ohio provisional ballots is expected to begin on Saturday, with Kerry supporters continuing to have hopes of a miracle. Looking at the numbers, we would need some unexpected breaks. The LA Times looked at the number of Kerry votes which would be needed:
Ironically, our hopes rest partially on the efficiency and ruthlessness of the GOP challengers as we must hope that they challenged unusually high numbers of legitimate voters, and that they successfully selected Kerry voters to challenge. Finding further irregularities, such as the those in Franklin County which gave significantly extra votes to Bush, could also affect the outcome. Our chances would improve further if Kerry should do better than expected among the overseas absentee ballots.
If these additional votes should pull within around 17,000 votes he might come close enough to trigger an automatic recount. We saw in Florida how the vote could have changed substantially if the recount was allowed to be completed. Kerry also has the option of requesting a recount, and has the funds to pay for it. Should the margin get closer, requesting such a recount would be understandable. The worst that could happen would be that Bush would accuse him of flip flopping on his concession.
The number of votes needed suggest that it is unlikely that Kerry could pick up the necessary votes to carry Ohio. Such an event would be as unprecedented as coming back from being down three games against the Yankees.
If all provisional votes are deemed valid, Kerry would need 88% of them to overcome Bush's margin of victory in Ohio, assuming the remaining overseas absentee ballots were split evenly.
But many provisional ballots will probably be tossed out. In past elections, about 10% were judged as not coming from legitimately registered voters. What's more, Blackwell ruled before the election that provisional ballots had to be cast in the correct precinct, and that any cast at the wrong polling place would not be counted.
If 10% of the provisional ballots were rejected, Kerry would need to get 97.6% of those remaining to overcome Bush's lead.
Ironically, our hopes rest partially on the efficiency and ruthlessness of the GOP challengers as we must hope that they challenged unusually high numbers of legitimate voters, and that they successfully selected Kerry voters to challenge. Finding further irregularities, such as the those in Franklin County which gave significantly extra votes to Bush, could also affect the outcome. Our chances would improve further if Kerry should do better than expected among the overseas absentee ballots.
If these additional votes should pull within around 17,000 votes he might come close enough to trigger an automatic recount. We saw in Florida how the vote could have changed substantially if the recount was allowed to be completed. Kerry also has the option of requesting a recount, and has the funds to pay for it. Should the margin get closer, requesting such a recount would be understandable. The worst that could happen would be that Bush would accuse him of flip flopping on his concession.
The number of votes needed suggest that it is unlikely that Kerry could pick up the necessary votes to carry Ohio. Such an event would be as unprecedented as coming back from being down three games against the Yankees.
posted by Ron Chusid at 11:30 PM
3 Comments:
Miracles happen!
Following is additional information from the Ohio Democratic Party:
Every Vote Will Be Counted!
The Ohio Democratic Party shares Sen. John Kerry's insistence that every vote be counted.
Here is where we stand in Ohio:
? After the Unofficial Results reported Nov. 2 - George Bush leads John Kerry by 136,483 votes.
? Provisional ballots will be counted.
155,000 provisional ballots have been cast and not yet been counted.
County Boards of Elections have until Friday to verify the eligibility of those who cast a provisional vote. Counting will begin, Saturday, November 13. County Boards have until. Dec. 1, 2004 to certify their vote totals and report them to the Secretary of State.
? Two Democrats and Two Republicans sit on each County Board of Elections.
Tabulations of the votes will be done in a bi-partisan manner. Only if there is a tie vote on the board does the decision go to the Secretary of State.
? Overseas absentee ballots have not been counted.
Overseas Absentee ballots by civilians may have been received by County Boards of Elections by Nov. 2 that have not yet been counted. The Boards of Elections will count those votes.
Overseas absentee ballots by military have until, Friday, Nov. 12 to arrive and be counted by the Boards of Elections in the final total.
? 93,000 punch cards were cast, but a vote for president was not counted.
The votes were not counted either because the voter voted for more than one candidate or did not vote for a presidential candidate. These ballots will be reexamined if there is a recount.
Ohio has a uniform, statewide system for recounting punch card ballots. Hanging chads and dimpled chads are treated uniformly throughout the state.
? Examination for errors going on in all 88 Ohio counties.
A Vote Error on Election night gave George Bush 3,893 more votes in a Franklin County precinct than actually cast for him. That error was found by comparing the unofficial abstract of votes casts by precinct to votes for each candidate. Officials in all 88 counties have been contacted and requested to review for a similar error.
? No Ohio County used Diebold Electronic Voting Machines
Ohio did not use modern electronic voting machines in this election. Six counties use an older form of electronic voting, which has a means of verifying the accuracy of the vote. In 69 Ohio Counties, punch card ballots were used.
? Recount - In Ohio a recount is automatic for statewide election if difference in the vote is within 0.25% of the total votes cast.
For a recount is the presidential race, this is probably about a 19,000-vote margin between Kerry and Bush.
Only a losing candidate can request a recount. A recount may always be requested regardless of the closeness of the race. The recount is requested by the losing candidate. The request for a recount must be made within 5 days of the official announcement of the results by the Secretary of State.
The fee for a recount is set by each Board of Elections and may be between $5 and $10 per precinct. You can limit the recount to specific precincts. The cost is deposited by the person making the recount request at the time of the application based on the number of precincts requested to be recounted. The entire recount and contest procedures are outlined at ORC 3515.
? Vote Fraud or Mistakes - Information about fraud or mistake can be reported the Ohio Democratic Party.
You can leave a message at (614) 221-6563 ext. 134 or email dan@ohiodems.org This information will be share with our legal counsel as the official election tabulations are being made.
I wish we had data as to:
Number of non-militatry and military absentee ballots
Location of these uncounted votes
I also note that the Ohio Democartic party's estimate for when an automatic recount would come into play is 19,000 as opposed to the 17,000 number I previously heard. This might suggest a higher number of absentee ballots than were used in the previous estimates for total votes.
O bviously the chances are poor, but we don't have enough data to know if there is any chance. We also cannot be certain based upon what Kerry is saying and doing. Considering what the country went through after the 2000 election, and considering we do not want such chaos during a time of war, and there is no point in looking like poor losers, Kerry might be playing this right even if he still thinks he has a chance. He promised to make sure all the votes are counted. Anything he does now can be interpreted in that light, rather than as an act of denying his loss if it turns out there is no chance. If he has a chance, the votes will be counted and we will know.
The real decision will be if he is within striking range (considering the large number of uncounted votes) but not close enough to trigger the automatic recount. Then he must decide whether to request a recount. He has the funding to pay for it. I would anticipate that this is also done in a low key manner, citing the need to count all the votes regardless of the outcome.
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