Polls Increasingly Predict Kerry Victory
The polls are increasingly pointing towards a Kerry victory. The two most accurate polls in recent elections, Zogby and Democracy Corps, show a tie or Kerry lead, but a closer analyses shows bad news for George Bush. A majority prefer someone new over re-electing Bush, increasing the liklihood that, as in previous elections, the undecideds will break with the challenger. Zogby, who called the election the closest in the previous two elections, has been predicting a Kerry victory for several months.
The 50% rule is being increasingly discussed. In most elections, the incumbent does little better than the final polls, while the challenger does far better as most undecided voters go with the challenger. By this theory, an incumbent running at under 50%, as Bush does in most of the polls, has a poor chance of winning.
Additional trends this election favor Kerry. Newly registered voters heavily support Kerry, but they are excluded in most of the head to head polls as people who did not vote in 2000 are not considered likely voters. There are also an increasing number of young voters (including young cell phone users who are not picked up by the polls) who are heavily backing Kerry, and appear more motivated to vote this year than in past elections. Many pundits believe that Bush needs a 4-6 point lead in the polls to have a true lead.
Looking at the electoral map also favors Kerry. In thier usual acts of deception, the Bush campaign claims to be battling on Democratic turf. In reality, the blue states of 2000 are going increasingly for Kerry, with many now beyond the margin of error. The real battle is in two states won by Bush in 2000, Florida and Ohio. Kerry now leads in both in most polls, but they remain within the margin of error. Bush also has weak leads in many other states he carried in 2000. With so many races being this close, the get out the vote efforts could be the deciding factor, and the Democrats have the advantage here.
Tom Ball of Polling Stragegy has an excellent review of these trends, and more, which point towards a Kerry win.
The 50% rule is being increasingly discussed. In most elections, the incumbent does little better than the final polls, while the challenger does far better as most undecided voters go with the challenger. By this theory, an incumbent running at under 50%, as Bush does in most of the polls, has a poor chance of winning.
Additional trends this election favor Kerry. Newly registered voters heavily support Kerry, but they are excluded in most of the head to head polls as people who did not vote in 2000 are not considered likely voters. There are also an increasing number of young voters (including young cell phone users who are not picked up by the polls) who are heavily backing Kerry, and appear more motivated to vote this year than in past elections. Many pundits believe that Bush needs a 4-6 point lead in the polls to have a true lead.
Looking at the electoral map also favors Kerry. In thier usual acts of deception, the Bush campaign claims to be battling on Democratic turf. In reality, the blue states of 2000 are going increasingly for Kerry, with many now beyond the margin of error. The real battle is in two states won by Bush in 2000, Florida and Ohio. Kerry now leads in both in most polls, but they remain within the margin of error. Bush also has weak leads in many other states he carried in 2000. With so many races being this close, the get out the vote efforts could be the deciding factor, and the Democrats have the advantage here.
Tom Ball of Polling Stragegy has an excellent review of these trends, and more, which point towards a Kerry win.
posted by Ron Chusid at 9:45 AM
2 Comments:
Hi Ron,
I'm not much of a blogger and can't seem to register on the official John Kerry site.
But there's a chance someone will read this and pass it along. I think it could make a real difference. AJG
So if you read this and find it worthy feel free to copy it and try to get it to someone who matters.
Yo, Good Folks,
Please, Please get this to Joe Lockhart or someone who can get it to him.
My 85 year old Mom in Manitowoc Wisconsin just filled her home heating fuel oil tank. She is now very aware of energy cost increases.
Prices of fuel oil have jumped to $1.68 a gallon. That's from $1.38 last year and about $1.00 during previous years.
Talk about real local pocketbook issues.
John Kerry has got to mention that the cost of home fuel oil and probably propane for Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and PA has skyrocketed.
He has to let folks know that that is a direct result of Dick Cheny's secret energy policies.
Throw in gas prices too. Who is making the big big money off of this?
All over the Midwest folks are now filling their oil/ propane tanks for winter. It is a perfect time to bring it up.
If the consultants don't live in rural areas they will not know this. But it is a very clear and present concern for many many people in these battleground Midwestern states.
Please hang this on George and Dick and his secret energy meetings, do it soon. Have someone do the research on the numbers but I really believe it could be a big big winner of an issue for Kerry/Edwards.
I know that us cheeseheads may seem like a bunch of country bumpkins to many of the big-hitters, but if anyone wants my help in crafting a short message that would hit home to us Midwesterners, I’d be glad to do so. Let me know.
Good Luck,
A. John Griffin
922 N. 14th
Manitowoc, WI 54220 920-682-6505
First of all this line of thought is on polls not fuel..second...hey what polls are you looking at..the north or south? As of Sun on Meet the Press. Every poll had bush in the lead..by 3 or more percent...so get your facts right...oh yeah...you are a Kerry supporter..you can't get your facts right...friggin loser...
Post a Comment
<< Home