Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Kerry Retains Lead in Electoral College

The "bad news" on the polls keeps looking better and better. August was certainly not a good month, but it was also not as bad as it first appeared.

Many Kerry supporters were shell shocked by polls from the weekly news magazines showing Bush with a double digit lead--until Zogby showed these polls included more Republicans than are present in the voting population and questioned their validity.

The news continued to get better as the Gallup poll showed Bush up by only one percent among all registered voters, although the headlines concentrated on his larger lead among predicted likely voters. My bet is that the greater intensity seen in Kerry supporters will translate into higher than expected voter turnout, making the final result closer to polls for all registered voters as opposed to projected likely voters. We see similar results from Rasmussen's daily tracking poll which shows that Kerry pulled back into a tie with Bush on Tuesday (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm)

Much of Bush's improvemnt in the polls came in red states, and doesn't help him pick up further electoral votes. The Zogby battleground report shows that Bush did close the gap in some states, but Kerry remains in the lead in the electoral college, leading in 12 of 16 battleground states. Currently Kerry leads in the Electoral College 307-231.

Bush did pick put some ground after several days of grabbing the headlines with attacks on Kerry which based upon distortions of his positions. This gave Bush a larger bounce than was expected, but the bounce is already showing signs of disappearing. If Kerry continues to hit Bush hard and force him to defend his record, Kerry should be able to regain the remainder of the ground he lost in August.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kerry should not be a Richard Nixon. Now is the time to bring our troops home. We lost South Veit Nam, but it did not bring about the end of the country. In fact we have good relationship with Veit Nam today. That could happen with Iraq.

8:41 AM  

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