Saturday, September 11, 2004

Bush Bonce Already Evaporating

Bush's lead in the Newsweek poll, which showed a greater bounce than most polls, has dropped considerably in the last week. While most polls showed Bush up by 2-4 percent after four days of vicious lies about Kerry's positions at the Republican National Convention, Newsweek showed Bush with an eleven point lead. It was noted that the poll did contian a larger number of Republicans than were present in the general population, giving Bush a considerable edge.

This week Bush's lead is decreased to five points in a two way race and six points in a three way race. This remains a greater lead than most polls are showing, but the movement over the last week does sound very significant.

Keep in mind when reading any national polls that the election is really fifty separate elections, and Bush's gains were primarily in states that were already safely going for him. Kerry has concentrated on the battle ground states, which paid off with the Zogby battlegorund survey showing Kerry ahead in the electoral college even when behind in the overall popular vote.

This week's results of the Newsweek poll are at:


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