Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Democratic Support Increases In Congressional Vote

Gallup has more bad news for Republicans:

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Feb. 28 to March 1, finds the Democrats holding a substantial lead over the Republicans as the party more registered voters currently support in this fall’s elections for Congress. More than half of registered voters (53%) favor the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in their district; only 39% favor the Republican.

Gallup’s recent trends on this “generic ballot” question — from October 2005 through early February 2006 — found a smaller six- to seven-point lead for the Democrats. However, the current 14-point Democratic lead is similar to a 12-point Democratic lead recorded last August. It is also among the highest seen since the Republicans came into power more than a decade ago.

They are finding greater support for Democrats among independents:

One reason why Democratic candidates may be doing so well in the current poll is that they enjoy a 22-point lead over Republican candidates among independent voters: 51% to 29%. Secondly, Republican voters are not as supportive of their own party’s candidate as Democrats are of theirs. More than 9 in 10 Democrats (93%) say they favor the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district; 88% of Republicans are backing the Republican candidate.

Gallup’s interpretation of the poll results is encouraging for Democrats. “It is unlikely, however, that the Republican majority could survive in the face of a popular surge for the Democrats, evidenced by a double-digit Democratic lead on the generic ballot just before the election.”


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